Data derived guesses here…
Spent entire week looking at Iowa crop- certainly not good. Most of the talk is actually quality of corn/% harvested.
Really no matter how I cut the cookie the 10 billion to 10.4 billion looks to be supply. Hard to believe estimates were for nearly 15 billion 3 months ago.
That is effective yield, here s pure yield.
And to summarize 4 or so models:
So honestly, I am not sure if % harvested will be lowed or yield, but production risk still remains.
In the AUG report conditions were better than 1988, last week, not so….
And consider the IV crush after the report.
And look at the MAR butterfly spread- big move.
Best of luck trading.
One of these days I will get back to oil/china data….but corn still on my to do list for now…